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Public Look Ahead: BTC Cycles + Macro Outlook

04/10/2020 11:20

Covering Bitcoin from the Daily and Weekly Cycle perspective.  I think we are not at the point in the Cycle where people need to be defensive again and mindful of a potential drop into the next Cycle Low.

Also covered the top 10 coins, along with exiting a good ETH long and our position in XTZ.

Lastly, at the 24:00 minute market I talk about general macro environment and ideas for capital preservation. 


Top 10 Coins as they appear in the video.


ETH – Starts at minute 11:45





LTC - 




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  • 0

    Thank you for your excellent and balanced analysis; wishing you a meaningful weekend and hope that your other assets recover sooner than later.

    Submitted 3 months ago by Mary Saunders Brizard

    Sorry I must have hit the submit button twice...

    Submitted 3 months ago by Mary Saunders Brizard

    Thank you.

    Submitted 3 months ago by Bob Loukas
  • 2

    Great discussion as always. This is a bit off they cycles approach and might be better suited question discussion for twitter or fintap, but wanted to avoid twiter because it seems as if with the halving coming up and Austrian maximalists it is hard to have a balanced discussion.

    Clearly from the HODL perspective this is the ultimate set up for BTC, and probably the best macro setup for gold in our lifetime. Physical gold and gold mining stocks reacted as one might have expected from what has happened, and in particular with the umemployment claims and even more unprecdented fed action. It seems as if we are saying unprecedneted a lot. 

    I just about completely agree with your macro view which you expressed at the end of the update. I think one's degree of negativity  depends on where you are, and how much firsthand impact one has experienced.

    It wouldn't have been a surpise to have seen a big green candle on Thursday, instead we had a very tight range with little volatility, and then today a bit of a sell off. I get in discussions from time to time with some of the Social Media BTC talking heads, and IMO most of them do more harm than good, and like you while the upcoming halving is imortant in the long term scarcity aspect of BTC, agree that it is far more about demand and allocation of capital towads BTC than a reduction in short term supply.

    Having been a former hedge fund manager, I speak with a lot of my old peers and folks with lots of capital still don't undertstand BTC and are allocating to gold. There are not a lot of guys our age with a somewhat meaningful allocation to BTC. I hate to say this, and I would never ADMIT it :-), but I am starting to move more into the Peter Schiff camp.

    I will maintian a HODL BTC position, but in this crazy macro environmemnt we are in, and one in which I don't know how we will unwind out of, I am allocating more and more to physical gold, tactically to select mining stocks, maintaining a very modest equity exposure, and more cash to take advantage of the pull back which I agree will happen.

    Submitted 3 months ago by Will weathersby

    Thanks Will, and I'm inclined to agree with all your comments.

    Personally, my largest allocation is gold with a full 20% (likely to increase) to physical gold and gold mining stocks.  Gold is a rock solid, 4,000 year old hedge and store of value.  I do not need to question its ability.

    Bitcoin is not a proven SOV, although I am confident in the distant future, it will be viewed as one.  I can see how large allocations of capital cannot trust moving into Bitcoin.  Retail folks see "potential opportunity" in Bitcoin's growth ability, but stewards of capital care more about preservation in an enviornment like this.  To claim Bitcoin is a true SOV is really to go agains the facts, even though BTC has all of the technical charactristics of a SOV.  In short, it just hasn't been around for long enough to have gained that level of trust.  Many of you can disagree, because you're such firm believers. 

    That's why I've always maintained for those who have accumulated a good amount of assets/wealth, you do not need to risk more than 10% of that here on BTC.  We're looking at a 30-50x apreciation over the next 4-8 years if this works as expected, so even a 10% allocation, if you are smart and discplined, will pay off extremely well. 

    Submitted 3 months ago by Bob Loukas
  • 0

    Thanks Bob, for ur insights !

    Submitted 3 months ago by SACHIN
  • 0

    Great video Bob - I'd say one of the best! Especially appreciated your endnote on the general macro outlook...

    I'm also a member of fintap and am bullish on gold moreso now than any other year before. It is very comforting hearing your point of view as we head into uncertain times, so thank you for your work! 

    Submitted 3 months ago by BTC George
  • 0

    As always, thanks for the update, Bob. I really like that you included your macro view at the end of the video.


    Happy weekend!

    Submitted 3 months ago by 98fJBzSsqHvDxL

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