Bitcoin Live Weekly Recap - 7/14-7/21
Below is a sample of the work from the Bitcoin Live analysts’ reports, updates and trading alerts. This past week the analysts have provided several trading alerts and full reports on the movement in the crypto trading space.
Right now, Bitcoin is in a bit of a down trend. Here are a few thoughts from Peter Brandt and Mark Dukas on where price could be heading.
Mark was not optimistic should price have closed below $11k. On the 19th, it closed at $10,535.
Should price close above $11k I reserve the right to change my stance and until that takes place I am in this position of cash for the time being.
BTC Dominance continues to tell the story of where cash is going (at 66% of the total market cap and rising)...
Capital is being moved to BTC & FIAT during this cool down. (my reasoning is the TOTAL2 chart). We could have some days at these levels and I am monitoring the 50 day MA on the daily for short term signs of bottoming out in BTC.
I alerted on July 11th that I was going to cash which I have done so (for Trading account of BTC and GBTC) I will wait for signs of a reversal or for opportunities to deploy cash.
Peter noted that there was a point where Bitcoin looked promising to rebound but not it seems that we may be in a complex downtrend. Before the analysis, he shared an anecdote that I felt bears repeating.
There is an old saying I learned back in the 1970s when I joined the Chicago Board of Trade. “A bull market can make many look smart. A bear market can make a few very rich. A major trading range can make most look and feel quite stupid.” Accordingly, I have nothing brilliant to share – I will simply review the technical tools I use to trade BTC.
Peter also notes that he has been showing several interpretations of parabolic construction. It should be noted that the parabolic drawings are constantly evolving, just as they had in prior bull market advances.
Daily chart. Last week I showed three renderings of the parabolic advance on the daily chart, pointing out that drawing a parabola is not an exact scientific endeavor. The parabola on all three renderings was violated by the decline this past week. The chart shown has the parabolic curve that – with the benefit of hindsight – is probably most accurate. Does this imply that Bitcoin MUST experience an 80% decline? I think not. While not the subject of this report, the Jan 2015 through Dec 2017 bull market has a number of parabolic periods that did NOT correct 80%. These parabolic periods simply flattened out the initial portion of the parabolic curve that was eventually violated in Jan 2018, as shown. I expect that a new parabolic curve will be defined in the weeks ahead. In fact, as a long-term bull on BTC I favor a more gradual slope at this time – a more gradual slope now would yield sharply higher prices later. Yet, while a more gradual parabolic curve is my best guess, I never want to treat the violation of any parabola lightly.
Additionally, Bob Loukas & Dean provided video updates for the status of Bitcoin. (See video at top of the page)
Bob notes that in the prior bull market, that there were very few retracements that approached 35%. The down turn from the $14,000 high was roughly 35% and it was not the time to be selling – especially for long-term “hodlers.”
From Bob’s cycles analysis, he likes the way that price action is playing out.
For Dean, he is finding price is being supported near certain key levels. He notes though that as a trader, he is monitoring the monthly time frame to see which action should be taken based on an inside candle that has formed.
Another quick note is on the Alt-Coin market. A lot has been discussed about whether many of the alt-coins will ever rally again. Perhaps only time will tell.
Mark Dukas noted in his report that ETH, BNB & EOS are all trending down at the moment so he has no trades.
Both Peter Brandt and Aksel Kibar discussed XRP.
Aksel notes that XRP has be forming a consolidation pattern that could be leading to a big downside move.
Price chart of XRP/USD formed a possible 10 month-long symmetrical triangle that can act as a bearish continuation. XRP failed to participate in the overall strength in cryptocurrencies. Unlike ETH, BTC and LTC, XRP failed to form a significant rebound from major support levels. The lower boundary of the 10 month-long consolidation is forming support at 0.285 levels. The support has been tested several times and a breakdown can complete the lengthy consolidation on the downside. Possible chart pattern price target stands at 0.1 levels. It is important to note that XRP is now trading below its 1 year average. Breakdown from chart patterns that take place below the long-term averages are more reliable.
There is a reason to believe that XRP will find strong support at the .3000 level. Ripple – as a corporate entity – holds approximately 50 billion of the 100 billion XRP supply. The company controls the market (this is why I have labeled XRP as a manipulated coin). It is to Ripple’s benefit to support XRP at the .3000 level. This is why XRP has found such solid support at .3000 (+/- 10%).