A Wick Down Below the Monthly 50SMA?
The only time we had price action between $3,000 and $5,000 was during a two month period of August 2017.
If $3k fails to hold I believe the May and June 2017 candles will prove to be the next possible areas of support.
If the Monthly 50SMA fails to hold it is possible that supply is quickly bought up and creates a wick on the downward price action of the candle.
I am not sure that the bottom is in yet. Bitcoin has never had more than six consecutive monthly green or red candles in its history. That is not a rule or indicative of something else, but given the extreme oversold conditions it is something to keep in mind for a monthly candle close in February.
There is also the possibility that Bitcoin could double bottom off of the $3,000 area. The best trading idea at the moment is to be patient until the picture becomes clear.
What you need to look for is the price reaction should Bitcoin drop to the prior monthly candles of May through September of 2017. That will provide a clue - if price breaks below - that a bottom might be in.