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The State of Bitcoin, My Approach to Buying The Bear Market

12/07/2018 11:50

(Below is a sample from Peter's weekly crypto report)


Bitcoin (GDAX)


The dominant chart construction in BTC remains the completed descending triangle. This pattern has a target of 2901. If 2900 does not hold the next target would be 1200, a price level representing the 2013 high and also a half-mast swing target as shown on the TradingView log-scale chart. My sense from the Twitter stream is that far too many BTC bulls are alive and well. Typically bear markets of this magnitude do not end until the last of the bulls give up hope. There is an old adage from the pit trading era used to describe this phenomenon.


“When the cops raid the brothel everyone is arrested, even the piano player.”


In other words, bulls will be almost non-existent when BTC eventually bottoms. As an educational highlight, note the bear flag that was completed on Monday.

[Note: My long-term BTC program remains unchanged. I have committed 8% of the capital allocated to the program to ownership. I will commit 25% on a scale down. The remaining 2/3rds will be committed based on trend and chart considerations. As of this writing I remain short CME BTC futures – my net position is short.]


Please remember that my real interest is BTC. If (when) the crypto market returns to a bullish trend I want my money on BTC. I want to keep my eye on the ball. I believe it is not in the best interest of crypto enthusiasts to be chasing after the fast rabbit of the day.


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