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Peter Brandt's Long Term Perspective on Bitcoin Charts

09/07/2018 11:19

Below is an excerpt from Peter Brandt's weekly Crypto report. Thank you for visiting Bitcoin Live. If you enjoy the article, please consider subscribing. 

Bitcoin (GDAX)


The Factor Daily Trend Model is Up. It will take a minimum of two trading days for the Trend Model to turn to a Down position. I own BTC based on the Trend Model, but would catapult the position if new lows for the bear market are registered.

There are two primary interpretations of the BTC daily chart from a classical charting perspective. The interpretation I have most favored has been that of a 7-month descending triangle dating back to Feb 6, as shown below. Under this interpretation a decisive close below 5600 or so would complete the pattern and establish a target of 2823. This approximate target is determined by projecting the height of the descending triangle downward from the lower boundary on a log scale chart.





There is a second classical charting interpretation that I might consider, given further developments. It is possible to redraw the lower boundary in a manner that ignores the Feb 6 spike low and produces a possible falling wedge. This pattern is most easily seen on the Factor RealRange chart. This interpretation would suggest a final wash-out decline toward 5200 (+/-100) to complete the bear market low. There is one significant problem with this interpretation – falling wedges should have a sharper angle of descent. Nevertheless I do not want to eliminate this interpretation as this time.





The falling wedge interpretation is quite consistent with the possibility of the 2015 fractal as I have discussed in the past. This fractal places the Jul 2018 high as point #9 with one more low to come as point #10. Note that in 2015/2016 point #10 was followed by extensive base building and a new bull trend did not emerge until 10 months after the point #10 low.



There are naysayers on social media who claim that cryptos do not comply with classical charting principles. To this I respond – nonsense. If anything, I find that cryptos comply with classical charting principles better than most of the other markets I trade. The reason for this – IMO – is that cryptos are more purely speculative in nature than are markets with established fundamental foundations.

 

Thank you for taking the time to visit Bitcoin Live and reading a sample of Peter Brandt's Weekly Crypto Report. We appreciate your interest in becoming an excellent cryptocurrency trader and would like to enhance your skills & knowledge.  You are encouraged to sign up for a membership with Bitcoin Live where you will gain access to a team of over six mentors with a variety of skills and over 100 years of trading experience. Click below and your education will begin.

 

 


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  • -1

    brillant analysis Mr. Brandt

    S
    Submitted 6 months ago by Aron recio
  • 0

    Ty Mr. B! Great analysis and baked with a healthy dose of common sense :-)

    Submitted 6 months ago by Bent Bråthen Jensen
  • 0

    Mr. Brandt, you bring a level headed analysis to the investment table worthy of greater regard. It must be said that this sort of balance is just what crypto investors need to survive this bear market.

    As for your final chart comparing the current falling wedge trend to the 2015 fractal, this seems extremely plausible, but it does lead me to ask a few questions.

    Will to 2018 time scale necessarily correspond to that of 2014-15 i.e. must the current fractal take 10 months to resume upward momentum? 

    What is the lowest support level that the 10th point on the fractal will reach? 

     

    I eagerly await your response and thank you.

     

     

    Submitted 6 months ago by Trade or Die
    0

    The fractals are very similar however, during the bear market from 11-15 you had the infamous Mt. Gox hack which I believe, caused a much longer selling period from low liquidity and panic. During that time BTC was the size of any regular altcoin. Look at Peters chart. Analyzing the previous bear market in 2011 you can see that each proceeded retrace hung on resistance far longer than we have seen in the current bear market. Based off the 2013 fractal it looks as if $3k could be the relative bottom.

     

    D
    Submitted 6 months ago by Donovan

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