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Featured Contributor: Which Path Will BTC Take to the Bottom?

Credible Crypto

10/02/2018 13:37

Below is an excerpt from Credible Crypto's post on Bitcoin Live.


If you are reading this you are likely involved with (or invested in) the current BTC market and anxious to know when this bear market will finally be over. The simple answer is that no one really knows, BUT there are a few things we can look for in order to make an “educated guess”. Although we may not catch the bottom, the idea here is to enter the market once a trend reversal has been confirmed, and hopefully this article will prepare you for how to spot this reversal event.

The first thing we need to consider is that there are typically two ways in which a market bottoms. The first is a capitulation event followed by a slow and steady grind lower/sideways for a long period of time (accumulation) and the second is a panic event that is followed by an instant spring which catapults the market into a new wave upwards. Now there is a key distinction between these two events and that is that the first event is likely one that we will see to correct an entire market cycle (and complete it) and the second one is more likely a mid-cycle correction. The complete market cycle crash will take much longer than the mid-cycle correction, however, the bull run that follows it will dwarf the prior bull run. Alternatively, a mid-cycle correction will occur much more rapidly and will likely lead to new highs, however, it would imply that the current market cycle is not over and a much larger, lengthier crash is still due down the road.

To illustrate this idea, the chart below shows an oversimplified sketch of what mid cycle corrections are like compared to a cycle-wide crash. 

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